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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

Redux · The National Debt Is Congress's Fault! Mar 19, 2011 - The Black Swan, Summarized: Becoming a Skeptical Empiricist. On the other hand, in the case of a financial planning scenario, a 98% probability of success actually just means a 2% likelihood that some change will have to occur to get the plan back on track before the end of the time horizon. Congressional Progressives: Make 'Em End Debt Issuance! By definition, a Black Swan event is . And individual Black Swan events almost never occur because their probability, according to Gaussian models, is so low. This completes my coverage of But in the Black Swan world you factor in the impact, and an event with very low probability but very high impact is considered important. Jun 1, 2009 - There's a good reason why The Black Swan is a best seller. Aug 22, 2013 - I have written “early and often” of the “Black Swan” events that could occur at any given time; in turn, throwing the political, economic, and/or social landscape into turmoil. Mar 14, 2009 - Nassim Taleb is a former trader who wrote a textbook on option and market making, and then became more philosophical in his best seller Fooled by Randomness, and now in The Black Swan. Dec 9, 2008 - Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized the idea in his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It's written in a very lively style with great narratives, literary images, and vivid The distributions they produce provide the best fit to Gaussian models. Black swans aren't guaranteed—they're the opposite of guaranteed: low probability and unpredictable. As of now, it appears more likely that the “Chernobyl” end of the spectrum is a more likely result; and thus, the odds of something MASSIVELY market roiling emerging from Japan increase with each passing day. Feb 6, 2012 - Which means in reality, it's not about more accurately modeling the probability of a black swan it's about having a plan for dealing with it when the time comes. Taleb never did define the term It is ineffective to moan about unpredictability: people will continue to predict foolishly, especially if they are paid for it, and you cannot put an end to institutionalized frauds. The inspiration for today's blog post is to black swans presents a real concern. Aug 13, 2010 - Second, The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by my friend Elie Ayache who has made a groundbreaking connection between metaphysics of contingency and the financial market.